Several weeks ago I discussed the upcoming winter and indicated that the snowfall should be near to slightly below normal and that temperatures would be near normal. Conditions have changed very little since then. The Pacific Ocean temperatures are still showing a La Nina winter upcoming, meaning large swings in temperatures, very warm weather followed by extremely cold weather. We have already started to experience these swings in a modified form.
Examining closely the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, not only are the temperatures similar to those of 1955-1956, but the configuration of the temperatures are almost identical as well. Could we be repeating the weather patterns that occurred in 1955-1956? Well, during July 1955 it was extremely hot and dry in the Hudson Valley and much of the Northeast for that matter. In July 1999, we also had extremely hot and dry weather. In fact, we experienced a heat drought. Many plants and trees were stressed. Upon examining the weather conditions of September 1955, the Hudson Valley had a great deal of precipitation.( 8-10 inches above normal). The Mid Atlantic States and much of the Northeast also experienced heavy rainfall. Several tropical storms swept up the east coast. During September 1999, again, several tropical storms struck the east coast extending right into the local area. Rainfall amounts for September 1999 were, remarkably, also 8-10 inches above normal. Exactly like those of 1955. November 1955 produced no accumulating snow in the Lower Hudson Valley. November 1999 also produced no accumulating snow in the Hudson Valley!
Below is a chart indicating snowfall amounts BY MONTH during the 1955-1956 winter season. In the past, this has been a very reliable indicator of things to come. Notice how the winter STARTS OFF SLOWLY as far as snowfall is concerned. February and especially March feature much more snowfall in selected areas than do December and January. Examining the chart more closely, it appears that the northern & western areas are the best targets for abundant snowfall this winter. (Poughkeepsie & Port Jervis).
Overall, the chart indicated snowfall should average close to normal in many areas, with most of the snowing occurring during the second half of the winter!
